Published in NZ Herald
21/2/2012
By Bernard Hickey
New Zealand faces two crises, and one opportunity that the Government seems either ignorant of or unwilling to address.
The first crisis is of housing supply in two regions. Auckland and
Christchurch now have huge shortages of waterproof and undamaged homes
that regular families can afford to own.
The problem is set to get much worse in the years to come, given the
lack of building happening and the population increase projected.
The Department of Building and Housing forecast this month that New
Zealand needs to build 20,000 to 23,000 housing units a year over the
next five years to keep pace with population growth.
We have been building at a rate below 15,000 a year for the past three years.
It could be argued that this also ignores the destruction or degradation
of large swathes of housing stock in Auckland and Christchurch because
of the leaky-building disaster and the earthquakes of 2011.
Auckland needs at least 10,000 new homes each year, yet less than half
of these are being built. The crisis has intensified since 1999, with
the introduction of the Metropolitan Urban Limit and the revelation that
an entire generation of homes is leaky. Yet the lack of debate within
New Zealand's political leadership is astonishing.
John Key has focused the Government on selling up to half of the shares
in the state-owned power generators to avoid borrowing more money.
The Government has virtually ignored the strong analysis last year from
its own Productivity Commission on housing-affordability problems, which
are mostly about a lack of new house building. The Department of
Building and Housing's advice to the incoming minister made no public
impact.
Even Auckland Mayor Len Brown seems to be focused on other things, in
particular a rail loop. He seems more interested in the underlying
infrastructure for the very long term than the immediate crisis of a
lack of housing.
The most obvious increase as a result of the shortage is in the price of
homes and rents. Both are rising quicker than the inflation rate and
price rises outside Auckland and Christchurch. Young Auckland and
Christchurch workers, those who are not property owners, give up. They
are leaving the country.
The second crisis is youth unemployment. New Zealand has 83,000 people
aged 15 to 24 who are not working or in education. The youth
unemployment rates for Maori and Pacific Island youth, mostly in
Auckland, are scandalous at 30.4 per cent and 29.8 per cent
respectively.
Yet, again, we hear nothing from the likes of Key or Brown. We have yet to hear our leaders even acknowledge the problem.
That brings us to a huge opportunity. Why can't we, as a nation, take a
strategic decision to solve these two crises by training these 83,000
young people as plumbers, chippies, electricians, roofers and the like
in preparation for a national-scale building programme?
Government-owned land would need to be opened up and town planners
overruled. Taxpayer money would need to be invested, and lots of it. But
is anyone even talking about it, let alone doing it?
bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz
